- AZ Senate Race: Blake Masters Tied with Anti-Gun Senator Mark Kelly, Takes Lead in Maricopa County
- AZ Governor Race: Kari Lake Expands Lead over Twice Convicted Racist Katie Hobbs
- Arizona Secretary of State Race: Mark Finchem Leads Crooked Adrian Fontes in Arizona AND Maricopa County
- AZ Attorney General Race: Abe Hamedeh Holds Commanding Lead Over Radical Kris Mayes
Polls released this week by CD Media/Big Data Polls show a big surge for the big 4 candidates on the Arizona MAGA Slate. There is no word whether a poll focusing on the race for Arizona’s Superintendent of Public Instruction is in the works however.
One consistent thread among the 4 offices polled is that Republican candidates are polling much stronger in October than throughout the summer. According to Big Data Polls owner, Rich Baris, this is due to the fact that it is tougher to reach Republicans in the summer months as opposed to Progressives; in addition to pollsters screening their participants from ‘Registered Voters’ to focus more on ‘Likely Voters’.
The biggest takeaway from these 4 polls is that every Republican candidate is leading their Neo-Marxist opponent in Arizona’s largest county, Maricopa. For those outside of Arizona, Maricopa accounts for about 60% of the vote in Arizona and it’s difficult to win Arizona without winning Maricopa. Not impossible, but difficult. If these numbers hold firm on Election Day, this should leave long coattails for Republican candidates to carry them in down-ballot races in the county and the state.
WHAT TO EXPECT
Gone are the days when pollsters would inform the public where the voters stand on the issues. We are now in an era where pollsters brazenly try to steer policy and affect turnout with the goal of assisting Democrats. What you can expect is more Arizona polls that will show Dems either tied or way ahead in Arizona (expect this especially in the AZ Senate race – see here). If you look at these polls, you’ll likely see that they will be weighted incorrectly or focus on ‘Registered Voters’ instead of the ‘Likely Voter’ Screen.
This will be done to boost Democrat Party participation in hopes that Dems can steal a win on the down ballot races (see Maricopa Attorney candidate, AntiFa aligned Julie Gunnigle). They know they can’t salvage Katie Hobbs but they can convince the 3-5% of Dems who may not mail their ballots back because it’s a lost cause to vote. Basically the goal is the inverse of the 2016 Suppression Polls meant to keep Republicans home.
Ignore those polls.
The only pollsters to consider are: Emerson College (who did better than most in the AZGov Primary race), Trafalgar, Big Data Polls/CD Media, and Rasmussen.
Again, ignore the rest – especially the Arizona based pollsters such as OH Insights, and Highground who are often off by 5% or more on election day and are connected at the hip with Arizona’s Consultant Class and dying legacy media companies. There is no pollster in Arizona that are worth a damn.
FINAL THOUGHT
The polls were released a few days prior to President Trump’s visit to Arizona. And according to recent history, a Trump visit usually generates a 2-4% bump come election day. With Mail-In Ballots about to be mailed out this week, and after Mark Kelly’s disastrous performance in the only AZ Senate debate, Republicans are in pole position as ballots begin to arrive.
And IF past is precedent and Arizona does see a post-rally ‘Trump Bump’, than we should see these four races called the night of the election. It may be late in the night, but called Election Night.
However, if I were advising any of these campaigns, I would say to ignore all the polls and work like you’re 5% behind through election day and leave everything out on the field.
Leave nothing to chance.
Til next time!
AZL